Bioclimatic analysis of potential worldwide production of spring-type camelina [Camelina sativa (L.) Crantz] seeded in the spring

Camelina [Camelina sativa (L.) Crantz] is a Brassicaceae oilseed that is gaining interest worldwide as low-maintenance crop for diverse biobased applications. One of the most important factors determining its productivity is climate. We conducted a bioclimate analysis in order to analyze the relationship between climatic factors and the productivity of spring-type camelina seeded in the spring, and to identify regions of the world with potential for camelina in this scenario. Using the modelling tool CLIMEX, a bioclimatic model was developed for spring-seeded spring-type camelina to match distribution, reported seed yields and phenology records in North America. Distribution, yield, and phenology data from outside of North America were used as independent datasets for model validation and demonstrated that model projections agreed with published distribution records, reported spring-seeded camelina yields, and closely predicted crop phenology in Europe, South America, and Asia. Sensitivity analysis, used to quantify the response of camelina to changes in precipitation and temperature, indicated that crop performance was more sensitive to moisture than temperature index parameters, suggesting that the yield potential of spring-seeded camelina may be more strongly impacted by water-limited conditions than by high temperatures. Incremental climate scenarios also revealed that spring-seeded camelina production will exhibit yield shifts at the continental scale as temperature and precipitation deviate from current conditions. Yield data were compared with indices of climatic suitability to provide estimates of potential worldwide camelina productivity. This information was used to identify new areas where spring-seeded camelina could be grown and areas that may permit expanded production, including eastern Europe, China, eastern Russia, Australia and New Zealand. Our model is the first to have taken a systematic approach to determine suitable regions for potential worldwide production of spring-seeded camelina. Using the modelling tool CLIMEX, we developed a bioclimate model to investigate the relationship between climate and the productivity of spring-seeded camelina and to identify regions worldwide suitable for spring-seeded camelina production. The analysis resulted in identification of areas that may permit expanded production and new areas suited for spring-seeded camelina; results further suggest that camelina yield potential is more impacted by water limitation than heat. The model developed here can be used for climate change analyses and for the development of models for camelina in other production scenarios, like spring-type camelina seeded in the fall or winter-type camelina.image