Possibilities for Mitigating the Matthew Effect in Low-Carbon Development: Insights from Convergence Analysis

Under global pressure of climate change, adopting an economic model of low-carbon development has become an inevitable choice for economies worldwide. Playing an important role in economics and carbon emission reduction, cities are crucial in development strategies planning at both national and regional levels. Based on the data of 198 prefecture-level cities in China from 2003 to 2019, this paper quantifies the low-carbon development index for each city, and analyzes the low-carbon development trend within cities using the club convergence method, and finally identifies the relevant factors influencing the low-carbon developmentby taking into account the divergent trends. The study found that: (1) The national low-carbon development index does not exhibit spontaneous convergence. (2) Cities ultimately fall into four converging clubs. Club 1 tends to converge toward a high level of low-carbon development, while Clubs 2, 3, and 4 tend to converge toward lower levels or may fail to achieve low carbon development, resulting in a widening gap with Club 1. This implies the existence of the Matthew effect. (3) Factors such as the financial interrelations ratio, foreign direct investment, urbanization, employment figures, and transportation enhancements can promote low-carbon development and alleviate the Matthew effect.