Accumulative Prediction Values of Serum Thyroid Stimulating Hormone and Visceral Adipose Tissue for Metabolic Syndrome in Postmenopausal Women: A 10-Year Follow-Up Study of Chinese Population.

AIMS:We aim to explore the cumulative predictive value of elevated serum thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) and visceral fat area (VFA) for metabolic syndrome (MS) development in postmenopausal women.METHODS:A total of 1006 postmenopausal females were enrolled in a 10-year prospective longitudinal study from 2011 to 2021 in the community of Banknote Printing Company of Chengdu. The sociodemographic information collection and anthropometric measurements were made by a professional nurse. Fasting blood samples were drawn for chemical analysis of fasting plasma glucose, triglycerides, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and TSH. Magnetic resonance imaging was performed to measure VFA. All the participants were categorized into four groups according to median VFA and serum level of TSH.RESULTS:A total of 793 postmenopausal females without MS underwent a 10-year follow-up study grouping by TSH and VFA: Group 1 (TSH level <4.2 μIU/mL, and VFA < 70 cm2 ), Group 2 (TSH level ≥4.2 μIU/mL, and VFA < 70 cm2 ), Group 3 (TSH level <4.2 μIU/mL, and VFA ≥70 cm2 ) and Group 4 (TSH level ≥4.2 μIU/mL, and VFA ≥70 cm2 ). During the 10-year follow-up, MS was newly developed in 326 (41.1%) subjects. The incidence of MS was 29.8% (n = 53), 35.2% (n = 63), 41% (n = 87), and 55% (n = 123) from Group 1 to Group 4 (Group 4 vs other groups, p < .001). Cox regression analysis for MS prediction demonstrated that both TSH (Model 3, hazard ratio [HR] = 1.07 [95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.09]) and VFA (Model 4, HR = 1.02 [95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.08]) were not only independent predictors of MS but also involved some interaction between each other (p for interaction = .021).CONCLUSION:Our findings suggested that mutual interaction between higher TSH and VFA contributed to the development of MS. Further studies are needed to clarify these contributions.