The Use of Regional Data Assimilation to Improve Numerical Simulations of Diurnal Characteristics of Precipitation during an Active Madden-Julian Oscillation Event over the Maritime Continent.

This study examines the impact of regional data assimilation on diurnal characteristics of precipitation and winds over the Maritime Continent (MC) using a set of cloud-permitting-scale (~3 km) numerical simulations with the mesoscale community Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the NCEP Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI)-based ensemble-3DVAR hybrid data assimilation system. Numerical experiments focus on January 2018, when a well-defined, active Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) propagated through the MC region. Available conventional and satellite data are assimilated. Results show that simulated precipitation with data assimilation generally agrees better with satellite-derived rainfall than the control simulation without data assimilation. Simulations with data assimilation also reproduce the diurnal cycle of precipitation better, especially for the timing of the precipitation peak. Data assimilation modulates the overstrong (overweak) diurnal forcing over the land (ocean) in the control simulation. The vertical phase shift of the thermodynamic environment, associated with the timing of vertical motion transition along with low-level water vapor supplies, results in maximum precipitation occurring later, especially over land. To further demonstrate the impact of data assimilation, an additional experiment assimilates NASA Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS)-derived ocean surface winds. The results indicate that the assimilation of CYGNSS data exhibits an evident impact on the diurnal variation of surface variables and a similar shift in the diurnal cycle of precipitation. Overall, this study highlights the importance of regional data assimilation in improving the representation of precipitation over the MC, paving the way for a better understanding of the interactions of local diurnal convective precipitation cycles with MJO.