Simulated Propagation of Ion Acoustic Solitary Waves from Orbital Debris Contrasted with Simultaneous Observations of the Ionosphere by an Incoherent Scatter Radar

Conventional observation methods are unable to detect and track sub-cm orbital debris which poses a risk to crewed and robotic spacecraft. A proposed alternate detection method involves sensing the plasma density solitary wave (henceforth "solitons") predicted to be produced by the interaction of the electrical charge of the orbital debris with the local ionospheric plasma. This work looks for evidence of the plasma signature of a defunct CubeSat that is already tracked using conventional methods. Ground based observers, such as incoherent scatter radars operated by the European Incoherent Scatter Scientific Association, may be able to detect the presence of solitons created by a CubeSat traveling through the ionosphere. Several 1U CubeSats are propagated from their last time of observation until they overfly an incoherent scatter radar site during its operating cycle. In this observation window a target of opportunity is selected and the hypothesized solitons are modeled. The modeled solitons are compared with raw electron density measurements from the radar station. The variance in the radar measurements makes it unlikely to confirm an observation without the implementation of a bank of filters, but the apparently uncorrelated variance of the plasma density measurements is on the same order of magnitude as the soliton disturbances induced by the CubeSat. Thus, it may be possible to detect the presence of a soliton with a filter, a correlation algorithm, and a radar with an appropriate range gate and sample rate.