Climate change projections and impacts on the eucalyptus plantation around the Doce River basin, in Minas Gerais, Brazil

The goal of this work is to assess the precipitation and temperature trends in climate change projections in the state of Minas Gerais in Brazil, with emphasis on the Doce River basin, using high resolution climate projections suitable for the scale of the basin. Tailored impact assessment of climate change on eucalyptus plantation in terms of thermal and water stress is provided for the basin. We analyzed the downscaling of climate change projections produced by the Eta regional model at 20-km nested to three global models, CanESM2-ES, HadGEM2ES and MIROC5, and at 5-km resolutions nested to HadGEM2-ES. In historical period, the temperature and precipitation patterns are reproduced by the Eta model. The 5-km Eta simulations provides more spatial detail of the maximum precipitation near the regions of high topography, although in these areas, precipitation is overestimated with respect to the WorldClim data. All projections agree with a warmer climate in the basin until 2070. Precipitation projections indicate a decrease in future periods. The analysis of extreme temperature indices shows an increase in warm days and warm nights and a decrease in cold days and in cold nights until 2070. Future projections indicate trends of reduction in annual rainfall and increase in consecutive dry days. Regarding the eucalyptus, future productivity may be at risk, as most locations will meet more frequently the water stress conditions. Six locations may meet both thermal and water stress conditions and become unsuitable for eucalyptus plantation if only climate factors are considered.