Activity-based integrated modelling for assessing COVID-19 impacts on transport operations and emissions

This study combines an integrated transport, land-use, and energy (iTLE) modeling system with traffic microsimulation model and emission simulator for a holistic analysis of COVID-19 pandemic related changes in traffic flows and emissions. An activity-based travel demand model within iTLE informs pandemic traffic operation scenarios for traffic microsimulation modeling. Link-based simulation outputs inform a finer-grained emission estimation process within a MOtor Vehicle Emission Simulator. Results suggest that the overall network performance improves during lockdown as average delays and queue time decrease by 42.04% and 5.9% respectively compared to pre-COVID condition. Emission results reveal that GHG emissions significantly decrease (64%) in lockdown while it starts increasing gradually in post-pandemic period. Link-based emission analysis indicates that major arterial streets achieve a significant reduction in air pollutant emission. The findings of this study will help transportation planners, engineers, and policymakers to devise effective policies for the improvement of transport operations and emissions.