Suitability and Sensitivity of the Potential Distribution of Cyclobalanopsis glauca Forests under Climate Change Conditions in Guizhou Province, Southwestern China

Global climate change is becoming increasingly prominent and has already begun to influence natural biological systems. Assessing the potential impact of climate change on ecosystems is an important research topic of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP). Based on current distribution data, climate data, climate change scenarios (RCP8.5 scenario, 2070-2099), and application of the MaxEnt model, this study assessed suitability and sensitivity of the potential distribution of Cyclobalanopsis glauca forests under climate change conditions in Guizhou Province. The results were as follows: (1) Area under the curve values of training data and texting data indicated excellent performance of the model; (2) Compared to the current climate, areas of probability <0.4 were decreased, and the other areas presented an increasing trend under the RCP8.5 scenario; (3) Positive sensitivity areas were much larger than negative sensitivity areas under climate change. In either case, slight sensitivity areas accounted for the largest proportion; (4) The mean altitude of slight sensitivity areas measured the lowest, and highly negative sensitivity areas were the highest.