Modelling Survival and Establishment of Grass Carp, Ctenopharyngodon idella, in the Great Lakes Basin

............................................................................................................................... V RÉSUMÉ .................................................................................................................................. VI GENERAL INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................... 1 1.0 BIOENERGETICS MODELLING OF POTENTIAL GROWTH AND CONSUMPTION BY GRASS CARP IN THE GREAT LAKES ...................................................................................... 2 ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................................ 2 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................... 2 METHODS ............................................................................................................................. 3 The model .......................................................................................................................... 3 Parameterization ................................................................................................................ 5 Simulation .......................................................................................................................... 7 Sensitivity analysis ............................................................................................................. 8 RESULTS .............................................................................................................................. 9 Model sensitivity ................................................................................................................14 DISCUSSION ........................................................................................................................15 Uncertainties .....................................................................................................................17 Interpretation .....................................................................................................................18 CONCLUSION ......................................................................................................................19 2.0 EVALUATING THE NET REPRODUCTIVE VALUE OF GRASS CARP IN THE GREAT LAKES FOR POTENTIAL ESTABLISHMENT ........................................................................... 19 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................19 METHODS ............................................................................................................................20 Estimating the net reproductive value ................................................................................20 Parameter values ..............................................................................................................22 Age of reproductive maturity ..............................................................................................23 Management Scenarios.....................................................................................................24 Matrix population modeling ................................................................................................25 RESULTS .............................................................................................................................26 Estimating the net reproductive value ................................................................................26 Age of reproductive maturity ..............................................................................................26 Management scenarios .....................................................................................................27 Matrix population model ....................................................................................................28 DISCUSSION ........................................................................................................................28 3.0 SIMULATION OF OVERWINTER SURVIVAL OF FIRST-YEAR GRASS CARP CTENOPHARYNGODON IDELLA IN THE GREAT LAKES BASIN .......................................... 30 ABSTRACT ...........................................................................................................................30 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................30 METHODS ............................................................................................................................32 RESULTS .............................................................................................................................36