Evaluation of crop model prediction and uncertainty using Bayesian parameter estimation and Bayesian model averaging

Yujing Gao,Daniel Wallach,Toshihiro Hasegawa,Liang Tang,Ruoyang Zhang,Senthold Asseng,Tamer Kahveci,Leilei Liu,Jianqiang He,Gerrit Hoogenboom

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology（2021）

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摘要

•Bayesian model averaging is superior to simple model averaging.•BMA assigns different weights to individual models of a multi-model ensemble.•A full chain of analysis for crop model ensembles is illustrated.

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关键词

Crop models,Multi-model ensemble,MCMC,Reliability diagram,Model weighting

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