Pneumococcal exposure routes for infants: a nested cross-sectional survey in Nha Trang, Vietnam

Background: Infants are at highest risk of pneumococcal disease. Their added protection through herd effects is a key part in the considerations on optimal pneumococcal vaccination strategies. Yet, little is currently known about the main transmission pathways to this vulnerable age group. Methods and findings: We conducted a nested cross-sectional contact and nasopharyngeal swabbing survey in randomly selected infants across all 27 communes of Nha Trang, Vietnam. Bayesian logistic regression models were used to estimate age specific carriage prevalence in the population, a proxy for the probability that a contact of a given age could lead to pneumococcal exposure for the infant. We used another Bayesian logistic regression model to estimate the correlation between infant carriage and the probability that at least one of their reported contacts carried pneumococci, controlling for age and locality. In total 1583 infants between 4 and 13 months old participated, with 7428 contacts reported. Few infants (5%) attended day care and carriage prevalence was 22%. Most infants (61%) had less than a 25% probability to have had close contact with a pneumococcal carrier on the surveyed day. Pneumococcal infection risk and contact behaviour were highly correlated: if adjusted for age and locality the odds of an infant's carriage increased by 22% (95%CI:15-29) per 10 percentage points increase in the probability to have had close contact with at least one pneumococcal carrier. Two to six year old children contributed 51% (95%CI: 39-63) to the total pneumococcal exposure risks to infants in this setting. Conclusions: Cross-sectional contact and infection studies can help identify pneumococcal transmission routes. In Nha Trang, preschool age children are the largest reservoir for pneumococcal transmission to infants.