Impacts of environmental pollution on mangrove phenology: Combining remotely sensed data and generalized additive models

Mangrove ecosystems worldwide have been affected by anthropogenic activities that modify natural conditions and supply trace elements that affect mangrove health and development. In order to gain a better understanding of these ecosystems, and assess the influence of physicochemical (granulometry, pH, salinity and ORP) and geochemical variables (concentrations of V, Cr, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Pb, Rb, Sr and Zr) on mangrove phenology, we combined field and satellite derived remotely sensed data. Phenology metrics in combination with Generalized Additive Models showed that start of the season was strongly influenced by Pb and Cu pollution as well as salinity and pH, with a large percentage of deviance explained (92.10%) by the model. Start of season exhibited non-linear delays as a response to pollution. Other phenology parameters such as the length of season, timing of the peak of season, and growth peak also indicated responses to both trace elements and physicochemical and geochemical variables, with percentages of deviance explained by the models ranging between 33.90% and 97.70%. While the peak of season showed delays as a response to increased pH and decreased salinity, growth peak exhibited a non-linear decrease as a response to increased Sr concentrations. These results suggest that trace element pollution is likely to lead to altered phenological patterns in mangroves.