Variant Allele Frequency in Baseline Circulating Tumour DNA to Measure Tumour Burden and to Stratify Outcomes in Patients with RAS Wild-Type Metastatic Colorectal Cancer: a Translational Objective of the Valentino Study

Introduction In patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC), baseline circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA) variant allele fraction (VAF) might serve as a surrogate of disease burden and should be evaluated in comparison with CEA and RECIST-defined sum of target lesions. Methods In this pre-planned analysis of the VALENTINO trial, we included patients with RAS wild-type mCRC receiving upfront FOLFOX/panitumumab with available baseline liquid biopsy. CtDNA was analysed by means of a 14-gene NGS panel. For each patient, the gene with the highest VAF in ctDNA was selected. Results The final cohort included 135 patients. The median VAF was 12.6% (IQR: 2.0–45.2%). Higher VAF was observed in patients with liver metastases and with synchronous metastases presentation. Patients with high VAF had poorer median OS compared to those with low VAF (21.8 vs 36.5 months; HR: 1.82, 95%CI: 1.20–2.76; p = 0.005). VAF outperformed baseline CEA and target lesion diameter in the prognostic stratification and remained significantly correlated with OS ( p = 0.003) in a multivariate model. VAF was not significantly correlated with dimensional response and PFS. Conclusion CtDNA measured by VAF is prognostic in patients with RAS wild-type mCRC. Response and PFS after an anti-EGFR-based first-line strategy are independent from initial tumour burden.