Probabilistic Dynamic Analysis Method of Power System with Renewable Energy Based on Probabilistic Collocation Method

Renewable energy's uncertainty character has the potential to cause serious power system stability issues. This paper proposes a probabilistic dynamic analysis method by applying the Probabilistic Collocation Method (PCM) to evaluate the impact of the renewable energy uncertainty on power system's dynamic performance. Actual renewable power historical data are applied to establish the approximation polynomial functions in the proposed method with multiple input variables considered. PCM, which is a computationally efficient technique, can significantly reduce the computation burden without compromising the result accuracy compared with traditional Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). This proposed method is tested on the IEEE 39-bus system with multiple renewable generators, and the probabilistic results for dynamic simulation are calculated. The simulation results validate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed approximation method.