A risk assessment framework to improve the efficiency of CITES

Over-exploitation is a major threat to species and reported wildlife trade has quadrupled over the last four decades. The Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Flora and Fauna (CITES) therefore remains an important mechanism in tackling species declines. Appropriate listing of species on CITES Appendices avoids both unwarranted trade-controls and unsustainable trade and is, therefore, essential for the effective functioning and integrity of the Convention. The current process for assessing the appropriateness of existing species listings is considered time-consuming and inefficient. Here, we introduce a rapid risk assessment framework that combines assessments of species Red List conservation status with quantity of reported trade to provide insights into the risk posed to species from legal trade. We demonstrate the approach for ∼2500 vertebrate species listed on CITES Appendix II and identify a group of >1000 species that are not threatened (Red List category Least Concern) and had zero or an average of fewer than ten trade records per year. For these species, international trade is highly unlikely to pose a risk and so they may not merit inclusion on Appendix II on the basis of trade posing a threat to species survival. We suggest that the efficient risk assessment approach we apply here could be used to rapidly assess the appropriateness of species listings and, therefore, has the potential to improve the effectiveness of the Convention.