Identification of the Relative Timing of Infectiousness and Symptom Onset for Outbreak Control
Journal of theoretical biology(2020)
摘要
In an outbreak of an emerging disease the epidemiological characteristics of the pathogen may be largely unknown. A key determinant of ability to control the outbreak is the relative timing of infectiousness and symptom onset. We provide a method for identifying this relationship with high accuracy based on data from household-stratified symptom-onset data. Further, this can be achieved with observations taken on only a few specific days, chosen optimally, within each household. This constitutes an important tool for outbreak response. An accurate and computationally-efficient heuristic for determining the optimal surveillance scheme is introduced. This heuristic provides a novel approach to optimal design for Bayesian model discrimination.
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关键词
Bayesian model discrimination,Epidemiology,Optimal experimental design,Random forests.
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