On the relationship between the Madden‐Julian Oscillation and 2 m air temperature over central Asia in boreal winter

Linear regression is used to explore the relationship between the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) and 2m air temperature (T2M) over central Asia in boreal winter during 1979-2012. During MJO phases 3 and 4 (7 and 8), T2M anomalies exhibit a significantly strong, negative (positive) response to the MJO from the Arabian Sea to northwestern China. The anomalies of T2M are essentially influenced by surface net downward long (L-down) and shortwave radiations, which are caused by the changes in total cloud cover (TCC) and low-level tropospheric air temperature. The anomalies of L-down that are caused by TCC account for 20-65% of total L-down. The remaining anomalies of total L-down are explained by low-level air temperature changes. The 850 hPa air temperature (T850) tendency is mainly affected by the vertical motion over central Asia during MJO phases 1, 2, 4-6, and 8, as well as over northern India during phases 3 and 7. Over Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, and northwestern China, the anomalies of T850 tendency are mainly explained by the temperature advection during phases 3 and 7. TCC and vertical motion are affected by the evolution of the MJO event. The cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation related to the MJO over central Asia during phases 3 and 4 (7 and 8) causes the transport of cold (warm) air over central Asia. The MJO can be a useful intraseasonal signal to predict winter T2M over central Asia, where temperatures would be colder (warmer) than normal during MJO phases 3 and 4 (7 and 8).