A Nomogram For Predicting Overall Survival Of Patients With Gastric Carcinoma Who Received Radical Surgery And Chemoradiation Therapy

The aim of the current study was to find clinicopathologic variables associated with overall survival (OS) for patients with gastric carcinoma (GC) receiving postoperative chemoradiation after curative resection, and create a nomogram for individual risk prediction. A nomogram to predict OS following chemoradiation after curative resection of GC was constructed using a cohort of patients from Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center (FUSCC) and West China Hospital of Sichuan University (WCHSCU) between July 2004 and October 2015. Discrimination and calibration of the nomogram were tested by C-index, Kaplan–Meier curves, and calibration plots. A total of 549 patients were included in the study (403 patients from FUSCC and 146 patients from WCHSCU). Using the backward selection of clinically relevant variables with Akaike information criteria (AIC), sex, age, tumor site, tumor grade, depth of invasion, number of positive lymph nodes and number of negative lymph nodes were selected as factors predictive of OS, and incorporated in the construction of the nomogram. Discrimination and calibration of the nomogram revealed good predictive abilities (C-index = 0.680, 95% CI: 0.638-0.722). Independent predictors of death following radical surgery and postoperative chemoradiation for primary gastric carcinoma were used to create a nomogram to predict OS. The nomogram was able to stratify patients into prognostic groups, and performed well on internal validation.