MARK-RECAPTURE-RECOVERY MODELING AND AGE-RELATED SURVIVAL IN LITTLE PENGUINS (EUDYPTULA MINOR)

We analyzed yearly mark-recapture-recovery information collected over a 36-year period for the Little Penguins (Eudyptula minor) of Phillip Island in southeastern Australia. We show that it is feasible to model age-dependence for the survival, recapture, and recovery probabilities simultaneously, and that such a modeling scheme yields biologically realistic age structures for the model parameters. We provide illustrations of potentially erroneous results that may arise when researchers fail (1) to consider simultaneous age-dependence or (2) to detect annual variations that may mask age-dependence. From 1968 to 2004, 23,686 chicks were flipper-banded; 2,979 birds were encountered after fledging, and 1,347 were ultimately recovered dead. We found low survival of 17% in the first year of life, increasing to 71% in the second year of life, 78% in the third year, and 83% thereafter, and declining gradually after nine years of age. A population model allowing for immigration of birds from areas surrounding the study sites fits the observed stable population in the study sites.