Sputum bacterial microbiota signature as a surrogate for predicting disease progression of nontuberculous mycobacterial lung disease

Objectives Predicting progression of nontuberculous mycobacterial lung disease (NTM-LD) remains challenging. This study evaluated whether sputum bacterial microbiome diversity can be the biomarker and provide novel insights into related phenotypes and treatment timing. Methods We analyzed 126 sputum microbiomes of 126 patients with newly diagnosed NTM-LD due to Mycobacterium avium complex, M. abscessus complex, and M. kansasii between May 2020 and December 2021. Patients were followed for 2 years to determine their disease progression status. We identified consistently representative genera that differentiated the progressor and nonprogressor by using six methodologies. These genera were used to construct a prediction model using random forest with 5-fold cross validation. Results Disease progression occurred in 49 (38.6%) patients. Compared with nonprogressors, α-diversity was lower in the progressors. Significant compositional differences existed in the β-diversity between groups (p=0.001). The prediction model for NTM-LD progression constructed using seven genera (Burkholderia, Pseudomonas, Sphingomonas, Candidatus Saccharibacteria, Phocaeicola, Pelomonas, and Phascolarctobacterium) with significantly differential abundance achieved an area under curve of 0.871. Conclusions Identification of the composition of sputum bacterial microbiome facilitates prediction of the course of NTM-LD, and maybe used to develop precision treatment involving modulating the respiratory microbiome composition to ameliorate NTM-LD.