Risk Prediction Model for Radiation-Induced Dermatitis in Patients with Cervical Carcinoma undergoing Chemoradiotherapy

Purpose Radiation-induced dermatitis (RD) is a common side effect of therapeutic ionizing radiation that can severely affect patient quality of life. This study aimed to develop a risk prediction model for the occurrence of RD in patients with cervical carcinoma undergoing chemoradiotherapy using electronic medical records (EMRs). Methods Using electronic medical records, the clinical data of patients who underwent simultaneous radiotherapy and chemotherapy at a tertiary cancer hospital between 2017 and 2022 were retrospectively collected, and the patients were divided into two groups: a training group and a validation group. A predictive model was constructed to predict the development of RD in patients who underwent concurrent radiotherapy and chemotherapy for cervical cancer. Finally, the model's efficacy was validated using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results The incidence of radiation dermatitis was 89.5% (560/626) in the entire cohort, 88.6% (388/438) in the training group, and 91.5% (172/188) in the experimental group. The nomogram was established based on the following factors: age, the days between the beginning and conclusion of radiotherapy, the serum albumin (ALB) after chemoradiotherapy, the use of single or multiple drugs for concurrent chemotherapy, and the total dose of afterloading radiotherapy. Internal and external verification indicated that the model had good discriminatory ability. Overall, the model achieved an AUC of .66. Conclusions The risk of RD in patients with cervical carcinoma undergoing chemoradiotherapy is high. A risk prediction model can be developed for RD in cervical carcinoma patients undergoing chemoradiotherapy, based on over 5 years of EMR data from a tertiary cancer hospital.