Development of a Length-Based Cell-State Framework Toward the Re-Creation of Large-Scale Dense Congestion Patterns

This paper presents the results and novel findings of generating a simplified version of the prevailing traffic features that existed during a major evacuation. Leveraging the underlying framework provided by the widely used cell transmission model, the desire is to reconstruct the unique characteristics of large congestion patterns that propagate under dense traffic states, where limited attempts at scaling this base model have occurred. The length-based cell-state framework presented can reproduce large spatiotemporal congestion patterns that exist, specifically from large-scale evacuations. To further simplify, the framework considers traffic state heuristics which are calibrated through oblique cumulative count and occupancy curves. As a result of this preprocessing technique, an artifact was found from the use of the cumulative curves under the lens of Newell's two-phase traffic flow theory where three unique, separate queued regimes were identified within the fundamental diagrams. The methodology re-created a unique large-scale congestion pattern that existed during a past regional evacuation event, Hurricane Irma, the subject of this paper. To test this methodology, a large-scale congested period was analyzed, both with probe vehicle trajectory data and stationary radar detector data. Results demonstrate that traffic re-creation into state-based contours was able to be verified near a 90% level of confidence even at large spatiotemporal extents.