Electricity Climate-Compatibility Index: Measuring Global Progress Towards Net-Zero in Electricity Generation

In this paper, we introduce the Electricity Climate-Compatibility Index (ECI), an innovative tool designed to assess the alignment of global fossil fuel (FF) electricity generation with the net-zero carbon emissions targets for 2050. This index offers a country-level evaluation, contrasting permitted FF electricity generation as outlined in climate scenarios with actual and projected outputs from operational, under-construction, and planned power assets. Analyzing data from 170 countries, the ECI uncovers that while 143 countries could achieve carbon neutrality by revising strategies for their under-construction and planned FF assets, only 30 countries are likely to meet their climate compatibility goals under their current investment patterns. Additionally, the ECI shows a positive correlation with established indices like the Energy Transition Index (ETI) and Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI), enriching the understanding of each country's energy transition process. Detailed case studies of countries such as Iceland, Bulgaria, and Bangladesh highlight diverse approaches and challenges in achieving climate compatibility. The findings from the ECI are vital for informing policy and investment decisions, providing a clear guide for nations to navigate towards a sustainable and climate-resilient energy future.