Increase in precipitation will facilitate the ecological stability of desert steppe in the future

Community stability plays a vital role in ensuring the consistent provision of ecosystem services despite climatic changes. It is presumed that future changes to annual precipitation will impact the ecological stability of many systems, particularly the ‘fragile’ desert steppe. However, most studies of ecological stability are inferred from short-term field precipitation manipulation experiments. There is still extensively to learn regarding how the desert steppe reacts to long-term changes in precipitation. We conducted a 7-year experimental study monitoring the aboveground biomass of major plant functional groups (perennial grasses, perennial forbs, annual herbs, and semi-shrubs) under four experimentally manipulated precipitation gradients [reducing natural precipitation by 50% (-50%), natural precipitation (CK), increasing natural precipitation by 50% (+50%), and increasing natural precipitation by 100% (+100%)] to evaluate how changes in precipitation affect the biomass stability of plant communities. We did observe higher levels of species asynchrony, resistance, resilience, and temporal stability of community and functional groups in experimental plots receiving more precipitation. Interestingly, the contribution of species richness to community stability was not observed in our experiment. The increase in soil water content in the 20-30cm soil layer caused by increased precipitation promoted the resilience of perennial grasses but inhibited the resistance of perennial forbs. At the same time, the decrease in soil inorganic nitrogen caused by increased rainfall inhibited the resilience of perennial grasses. Notably, community resilience predominantly hinged on the resilience of perennial grasses, while community resistance was primarily dictated by the resistance of perennial forbs. Moreover, species asynchrony emerged as the primary regulator of community temporal stability. Our long-term experimental evidence underscores the transformative potential of precipitation in reshaping grassland stability across both functional and structural dimensions. Importantly, sustaining the high stability of perennial herbs emerges as a strategic avenue for enhancing the ecological stability of the desert steppe in the face of evolving precipitation patterns.