Trajectories of clinical characteristics, complications and treatment choices in data-driven subgroups of type 2 diabetes

This study aimed to explore the added value of subgroups that categorise individuals with type 2 diabetes by k-means clustering for two primary care registries (the Netherlands and Scotland), inspired by Ahlqvist’s novel diabetes subgroups and previously analysed by Slieker et al. We used two Dutch and Scottish diabetes cohorts (N=3054 and 6145; median follow-up=11.2 and 12.3 years, respectively) and defined five subgroups by k-means clustering with age at baseline, BMI, HbA1c, HDL-cholesterol and C-peptide. We investigated differences between subgroups by trajectories of risk factor values (random intercept models), time to diabetes-related complications (logrank tests and Cox models) and medication patterns (multinomial logistic models). We also compared directly using the clustering indicators as predictors of progression vs the k-means discrete subgroups. Cluster consistency over follow-up was assessed. Subgroups’ risk factors were significantly different, and these differences remained generally consistent over follow-up. Among all subgroups, individuals with severe insulin resistance faced a significantly higher risk of myocardial infarction both before (HR 1.65; 95