Estimates of the global burden of cancer-related deaths attributable to residential exposure to petrochemical industrial complexes from 2020 to 2040

The petrochemical industry is a major industrial emitter of greenhouse gas (CO2) and environmental pollution, posing health risks to nearby communities. Although previous studies have indicated that residents living near petrochemical industrial complexes are at a higher risk of cancer, they have focused on local or regional burdens. This study aimed to estimate the global cancer burden attributable to residential exposure to petrochemical industrial complexes. The geographical coordinates of petrochemical plants and oil refineries were retrieved and verified from published sources. The ArcGIS software and global population data were used to estimate the number of people living within specific distances (exposed population). The exposure time window was framed as ranging from 1992 to 2022, extending to the latest period of the exposure time window for all cancer types to estimate the attributable deaths between 2020 and 2040. The relative risk of cancer was estimated from 15 published studies. Population attributable fraction (PAF) method was used to estimate the risk of cancer attributable to residential exposure and calculate the number of cancer-related deaths. Our findings indicate that >300 million people worldwide will be estimated to live near petrochemical industrial complexes by 2040. The overall global burden of cancer-related deaths was 19,083, and it is estimated to increase to 27,366 deaths by 2040. The region with the highest attributable cancer deaths due to exposure is the high-income region, which had 10,584 deaths in 2020 and is expected to reach 13,414 deaths by 2040. Residential exposure to petrochemical industrial complexes could contribute to global cancer deaths, even if the proportion is relatively small, and proactive measures are required to mitigate the cancer burdens among these residents. Enforcing emissions regulations, improving monitoring, educating communities, and fostering collaboration are vital to protecting residents’ health.