Pathway-based signatures predict patient outcome, chemotherapy benefit and synthetic lethal dependencies in invasive lobular breast cancer

Invasive Lobular Carcinoma (ILC) is a morphologically distinct breast cancer subtype that represents up to 15% of all breast cancers. Compared to Invasive Breast Carcinoma of No Special Type (IBC-NST), ILCs exhibit poorer long-term outcome and a unique pattern of metastasis. Despite these differences, the systematic discovery of robust prognostic biomarkers and therapeutically actionable molecular pathways in ILC remains limited. Pathway-centric multivariable models using statistical machine learning were developed and tested in seven retrospective clinico-genomic cohorts (n = 996). Further external validation was performed using a new RNA-Seq clinical cohort of aggressive ILCs (n = 48). mRNA dysregulation scores of 25 pathways were strongly prognostic in ILC (FDR-adjusted P < 0.05). Of these, three pathways including Cell-cell communication, Innate immune system and Smooth muscle contraction were also independent predictors of chemotherapy response. To aggregate these findings, a multivariable machine learning predictor called PSILC was developed and successfully validated for predicting overall and metastasis-free survival in ILC. Integration of PSILC with CRISPR-Cas9 screening data from breast cancer cell lines revealed 16 candidate therapeutic targets that were synthetic lethal with high-risk ILCs. This study provides interpretable prognostic and predictive biomarkers of ILC which could serve as the starting points for targeted drug discovery for this disease.