Observational Quantification of Tropical High Cloud Changes and Feedbacks

The response of tropical high clouds to surface warming and their radiative feedbacks are uncertain. For example, it is uncertain whether their coverage will contract or expand in response to surface warming and whether such changes entail a stabilizing radiative feedback (iris feedback) or a neutral feedback. Global satellite observations with passive and active remote sensing capabilities over the last two decades can now be used to address such effects that were previously observationally limited. Using these observations, we show that the vertically averaged coverage exhibits no significant contraction or expansion. However, we find a reduction in coverage at the altitude where high clouds peak and are particularly radiatively-relevant. This results in a negative longwave (LW) feedback and a positive shortwave (SW) feedback which cancel to yield a near-zero high-cloud amount feedback, providing observational evidence against an iris feedback. Next, we find that tropical high clouds have risen but have also warmed, leading to a positive, but small, high-cloud altitude feedback dominated by the LW feedback. Finally, we find that high clouds have been thinning, leading to a near-zero high-cloud optical depth feedback from a cancellation between negative LW and positive SW feedbacks. Overall, high clouds lead the total tropical cloud feedback to be small due to the negative LW-positive SW feedback cancellations. Tropical high clouds can have both cooling and heating effects: by reflecting sunlight, they cool the planet and by preventing terrestrial radiation from escaping to space, they also heat the planet. Despite their influence on how much heat gets stored in the Earth system, there is a surprisingly poor understanding of how these clouds will respond to global warming. This uncertainty is largely due to the paucity of observational data. Now, however, instruments aboard satellites orbiting Earth have provided unprecedented data on the changes in the vertical structure of clouds as well as their heat impacts. Our work shows that the dominant signal in the satellite cloud record is the rise of high clouds in response to warming, not any net contraction of coverage. The high clouds are also found to be warming and thinning. Overall, these high cloud changes induce less reflection of sunlight and allow more terrestrial radiation to escape to space. However, these radiative effects cancel and altogether cause no significant heating impact in the tropics. Tropical high clouds are rising, warming, thinning, and when vertically averaged, are not contracting Tropical high clouds show a positive altitude radiative feedback and near-zero optical depth and amount radiative feedbacks