Differential Quantitative Analysis of Carbon Emission Efficiency of Gansu Manufacturing Industry in 2030

Decomposition analysis and forecasting of carbon emissions in manufacturing are crucial for setting sustainable carbon-reduction targets. Given the varied carbon-emission efficiencies across sectors, this study applied the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition method to analyze the drivers of carbon emissions in Gansu's manufacturing sector, encompassing high, medium, and low-efficiency industries, and it identified vital factors affecting carbon emissions. A localized Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model for Gansu was also developed. This model includes six developmental scenarios to project future carbon emissions. The study results are as follows: (1) LMDI decomposition indicates that increased carbon emissions in the manufacturing industry primarily result from economic growth in less efficient sectors and the dominance of moderately efficient ones. (2) Under Optimization Scenario 6, a 50.82 x 104 ton reduction in carbon emissions is projected for Gansu's manufacturing sector by 2030 compared to 2020, marking the carbon peak. These outcomes provide valuable insights for policy reforms in Gansu's manufacturing industry, aiming for carbon peaking by 2030.