Extreme events and land use changes in the climate crisis

Land use and land cover changes are an essential element of climate change scenarios, both in the context of mitigation and adaptation options (IPCC 2018, 2023). Changes in climate extremes, which belong to the most impactful consequences of on-going climate change (Seneviratne et al. 2021), will however substantially constrain these options, an aspect that is insufficiently factored in so far. In particular, changes in climate extremes, such as droughts, heatwaves, and fire weather, will substantially affect the potential for afforestation, bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), and agricultural production, as well as endanger the permanence of terrestrial carbon sinks. In addition, they have substantial impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem resilience, which are not fully assessed so far. On the other hand, land use and land cover changes also affect regional climate extremes through biophysical processes. This presentation will highlight new results showing the potential impacts of climate extremes for land use projections, including agricultural production potential and nature-based climate mitigation options, as well as feedbacks of the latter on regional climate change. The newest evidence highlights the need for a stronger interaction between the research community working on the physical science basis of human-induced climate change, and those assessing policy options, both for mitigation and adaptation. This has important implications for the development of Integrated Assessment Models and upcoming assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).   References: IPCC, 2018: Summary for Policymakers. In: Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, H.-O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P.R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J.B.R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M.I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor, and T. Waterfield (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 3-24. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157940.001. IPCC, 2023: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, pp. 1-34, doi: 10.59327/IPCC/AR6-9789291691647.001 Seneviratne, S.I., X. Zhang, M. Adnan, W. Badi, C. Dereczynski, A. Di Luca, S. Ghosh, I. Iskandar, J. Kossin, S. Lewis, F. Otto, I. Pinto, M. Satoh, S.M. Vicente-Serrano, M. Wehner, and B. Zhou, 2021: Chapter 11: Weather and Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., et al. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1513–1766, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.013. (https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter11.pdf)