Investigation of atmospheric drag effect on the trajectory of identified LEO objects and its implication on ISS safety during the 25th solar cycle

In the recent years we have witnessed unprecedented increase in both active and expired space missions (debris) – a scenario, if continued, that can lead to generation of even more debris through possible ‘satellite-satellite’ collision, ‘satellite-debris’ collision and/or ‘debris-debris’ collision (Kessler effect), especially in the heavily used low Earth orbit (LEO). Consequently, the possibility of a risk-free utilization and sustainability of space is significantly threatened because of the predisposed risk to both manned (e.g., the ISS) and unmanned active spacecrafts in this region of space. Space weather-enhanced atmospheric drag (and consequent increase in the rate of orbit decay) makes the risk even more worrisome. In this work, we investigate atmospheric drag effect on the trajectory of identified LEO objects (debris) during the 25th solar cycle and perform collision risk analysis for the International Space Station (ISS) operating at h≈415 km. We present relevant results and observations from this effort that are beneficial for orbit sustainability in LEO.