Impact of Socio-Economic and Climatic Scenarios on Power Trade Vulnerability in Africa

Energy security in Africa is seriously compromised by the continent's degree of political instability. Corruption, armed conflicts, and ineffective governmental institutions impede the maintenance of the existing energy infrastructure and deter new foreign investment. As a result, many African nations face unreliable power supplies, hampering economic growth. This effect, however, is usually overlooked in large-scale energy systems planning, which is often uniquely based on cost optimality considerations. This study aims to quantify the vulnerability of the cost-optimal African power systems and the potential power deficits arising from countries' political instability.  To do so, we examine African countries' generation mixes and power trades over 2020-2050 using six scenarios obtained with the OSeMOSYS-TEMBA energy system model. The six scenarios harmonize assumptions regarding socio-economic development, land-use change, and climate change impact on water availability for hydropower using the SSP-RCP framework. Moreover, capacity factors for existing and planned hydropower projects are included, considering both median and very dry hydrological regimes. In each scenario, we assess the degree of power trade-related political risk at the continental and country scales. This measure expresses the vulnerability of international power trades according to the political instability of participating countries. The governance indicators, reflecting the countries' degree of political instability, are projected for each SSP until 2050. Moreover, we stochastically quantify the power deficits due to operational deviations from cost-optimal international power trades caused by countries' political instability. Our results show that countries representing hotspots of political risk are located in western, southern and central-eastern Africa. These results are aligned with those obtained from an evaluation of the ecosystem impact of hydropower projects in Africa. Moreover, scenarios with more ambitious climate policy show higher political risk, especially in southern Africa. Instead, very dry hydrology scenarios are associated with reduced risk in eastern Africa and increased risk in southern Africa.  These results underscore a crucial need for stable governance frameworks and international cooperation to foster sustainable energy development in the region. Strategic interventions can indeed produce tangible impacts by reducing risks in the short term.