Mechanisms of the Indian Ocean surface warming pattern in CMIP5 and 6 models

The latest assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highlights an accelerated warming of the Indian Ocean (IO) compared to the global average. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and 6 (CMIP5/6) projections also indicate a distinct warming pattern, reminiscent of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), characterized by enhanced warming in the Arabian Sea and western Indian Ocean alongside a reduction in the IO branch of the Walker Cell. This study uses an SST heat budget adapted from Zhang and Li (2014, hereafter ZL14) across 46 CMIP5/6 simulations, to examine the drivers of the IO mean warming and its spatial distribution, for both the multi-model mean (MMM) and inter-model diversity. Differing from the prior ZL14 approach, this study incorporates feedback related to downward longwave heat fluxes. While ZL14 highlighted downward longwave fluxes as the main driver of the IO average warming, our results reveal a dominant role of latent heat flux changes for both the MMM and diversity. These changes are further related to a basin-scale wind speed reduction, linked to the winter monsoon & IO Walker cell branch weakening. Regarding the spatial pattern, our results emphasize a key role in the Bjerknes feedback in driving the IOD-like pattern for both the MMM and inter-model diversity. There is indeed a strong relationship across models between the IOD-like warming pattern, rainfall increase over the western IO, weakened equatorial easterlies, an east-west dipole in thermocline anomalies and the contribution of oceanic processes to surface warming. In the Arabian Sea, the enhanced warming is controlled by a seasonally varying balance, with the evaporative cooling feedback dominating during spring and summer when upwellings are strong, and the wind speed reduction associated with the winter monsoon weakening dominating later in the year. Overall, these results call for more comprehensive process-oriented studies with more sophisticated approaches (ocean or coupled model sensitivity experiments) to unravel the IO warming mechanisms. Keywords: Indian Ocean warming, Air-Sea Interaction, IOD-like warming, Walker cell weakening, Arabian sea warming, Coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP)