Predicting the Remaining Useful Life of Turbofan Engines Using Fractional Lvy Stable Motion with Long-Range Dependence

Remaining useful life prediction guarantees a reliable and safe operation of turbofan engines. Long-range dependence (LRD) and heavy-tailed characteristics of degradation modeling make this method advantageous for the prediction of RUL. In this study, we propose fractional Levy stable motion for degradation modeling. First, we define fractional Levy stable motion simulation algorithms. Then, we demonstrate the LRD and heavy-tailed property of fLsm to provide support for the model. The proposed method is validated with the C-MAPSS dataset obtained from the turbofan engine. Principle components analysis (PCA) is conducted to extract sources of variance. Experimental data show that the predictive model based on fLsm with exponential drift exhibits superior accuracy relative to the existing methods.