Social Vulnerabilities and Wildfire Evacuations: A Case Study of the 2019 Kincade Fire
arxiv(2024)
摘要
Vulnerable populations are disproportionately impacted by natural hazards
like wildfires. It is crucial to develop equitable and effective evacuation
strategies to meet their unique needs. While existing studies offer valuable
insights, we need to improve our understanding of how vulnerabilities affect
wildfire evacuation decision-making, as well as how this varies spatially. The
goal of this study is to conduct an in-depth analysis of the impacts of social
vulnerabilities on aggregated evacuation decisions, including evacuation rates,
delay in departure time, and evacuation destination distances by leveraging
large-scale GPS data. Specifically, we inferred evacuation decisions at the
census block group level, utilizing GPS data. We then employed ordinary least
squares and geographically weighted regression models to investigate the
impacts of social vulnerabilities on evacuation decisions. We also used Moran's
I to test if these impacts were consistent across different block groups. The
2019 Kincade Fire in Sonoma County, California, was used as the case study. The
impacts of social vulnerabilities on evacuation rates show significant spatial
variations across block groups, whereas their effects on the other two decision
types do not. Additionally, unemployment, a factor under-explored in previous
studies, was found to negatively impact both the delay in departure time and
destination distances of evacuees at the aggregate level. Furthermore, upon
comparing the significant factors across different models, we observed that
some of the vulnerabilities influencing evacuation rates for all residents
differed from those affecting the delay in departure time and destination
distances, which only applied to evacuees. These new insights can guide
emergency managers and transportation planners to enhance equitable wildfire
evacuation planning and operations.
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