Open-Source Modeling for Orthopedic Elective Capacity Planning using Discrete-Event Simulation.

The increase in elective surgical waiting lists as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic is creating significant consequences for health services worldwide. In the UK, the allocation of capital funds to increase capacity for managing elective waits has created planning and operational challenges for health services. This paper reports on the development and deployment of an interactive web-based discrete-event simulation model for supporting capacity planning of surgical activity and ward stay in a proposed new ring-fenced orthopedic facility in a UK health service. The model is free and open-source and developed to be generic and applicable for new capacity planning of elective recovery in orthopedics in other regions. With minor adaptations it can also be readily modified for application to other specialties. Given the current relevance of managing record elective waiting lists, there is potential widespread applicability of the simulation model which is supported by our open approach to modeling.