Prediction of HC5s for phthalate esters by use of the QSAR–ICE model and ecological risk assessment in Chinese surface waters

Due to their endocrine-disrupting effects and the risks posed in surface waters, in particular by chronic low-dose exposure to aquatic organisms, phthalate esters (PAEs) have received significant attention. However, most assessments of risks posed by PAEs were performed at a selection level, and thus limited by empirical data on toxic effects and potencies. A quantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR) and interspecies correlation estimation (ICE) model was constructed to estimate hazardous concentrations (HCs) of selected PAEs to aquatic organisms, then they were used to conduct a multiple-level environmental risk assessment for PAEs in surface waters of China. Values of hazardous concentration for 5% of species (HC5s), based on acute lethality, estimated by use of the QSAR-ICE model were within 1.25-fold of HC5 values derived from empirical data on toxic potency, indicating that the QSAR-ICE model predicts the toxicity of these three PAEs with sufficient accuracy. The five selected PAEs may be commonly measured in China surface waters at concentrations between ng/L and μg/L. Risk quotients according to median concentrations of the five PAEs ranged from 3.24 for di(2-ethylhexhyl) phthalate (DEHP) to 4.10 × 10-3 for dimethyl phthalate (DMP). DEHP and dibutyl phthalate (DBP) had risks to the most vulnerable aquatic biota, with the frequency of exceedances of the predicted no-effect concentration (PNECs) of 75.5% and 38.0%, respectively. DEHP and DBP were identified as having “high” or “moderate” risks. Results of the joint probability curves (JPC) method indicated DEHP posed “intermediate” risk to freshwater species with a maximum risk product of 5.98%. The multiple level system introduced in this study can be used to prioritize chemicals and other new pollutant in the aquatic ecological.