Scoring model based on cardiac CT and clinical factors to predict early good mitral valve repair in rheumatic mitral disease

Objective We aimed to evaluate the mitral valve calcification and mitral structure detected by cardiac computed tomography (cardiac CT) and establish a scoring model based on cardiac CT and clinical factors to predict early good mitral valve repair (EGMR) and guide surgical strategy in rheumatic mitral disease (RMD). Materials and methods This is a retrospective bi-center cohort study. Based on cardiac CT, mitral valve calcification and mitral structure in RMD were quantified and evaluated. The primary outcome was EGMR. A logical regression algorithm was applied to the scoring model. Results A total of 579 patients were enrolled in our study from January 1, 2019, to August 31, 2022. Of these, 443 had baseline cardiac CT scans of adequate quality. The calcification quality score, calcification and thinnest part of the anterior leaflet clean zone, and papillary muscle symmetry were the independent CT factors of EGMR. Coronary artery disease and pulmonary artery pressure were the independent clinical factors of EGMR. Based on the above six factors, a scoring model was established. Sensitivity = 95% and specificity = 95% were presented with a cutoff value of 0.85 and 0.30 respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic of external validation set was 0.84 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.73–0.93). Conclusions Mitral valve repair is recommended when the scoring model value > 0.85 and mitral valve replacement is prior when the scoring model value < 0.30. This model could assist in guiding surgical strategies for RMD. Clinical relevance statement The model established in this study can serve as a reference indicator for surgical repair in rheumatic mitral valve disease. Key Points • Cardiac CT can reflect the mitral structure in detail, especially for valve calcification. • A model based on cardiac CT and clinical factors for predicting early good mitral valve repair was established. • The developed model can help cardiac surgeons formulate appropriate surgical strategies. Graphical abstract