Insights into vehicle conflicts based on traffic flow dynamics

The utilization of traffic conflict indicators is crucial for assessing traffic safety, especially when the crash data is unavailable. To identify traffic conflicts based on traffic flow characteristics across various traffic states, we propose a framework that utilizes unsupervised learning to automatically establish surrogate safety measures (SSM) thresholds. Different traffic states and corresponding transitions are identified with the three-phase traffic theory using high-resolution trajectory data. Meanwhile, the SSMs are mapped to the corresponding traffic states from the perspectives of time, space, and deceleration. Three models, including k-means, GMM, and Mclust, are investigated and compared to optimize the identification of traffic conflicts. It is observed that Mclust outperforms the others based on the evaluation metrics. According to the results, there is a variation in the distribution of traffic conflicts among different traffic states, wide moving jam (phase J) has the highest conflict risk, followed by synchronous flow (phase S), and free flow (phase F). Meanwhile, the thresholds of traffic conflicts cannot be fully represented by the same value through different traffic states. It reveals that the heterogeneity of thresholds is exhibited across traffic state transitions, which justifies the necessity of dynamic thresholds for traffic conflict analysis.