Modelling transition of agricultural systems in response to climate change

The world is facing the multifaceted challenge of achieving food security for a growing population in the face of climate change. Already agriculture and by extension food security are affected by climate change and these impacts are projected to worsen. At the same time, agriculture and the food value chains fuel climate change through emission of greenhouse gases. Therefore, the agriculture sector is the focus of adaptation and mitigation initiatives. Modelling approaches have the potential to explore the potential impacts and risks to agricultural systems, but can also be used to shed light on transitions and adaptations that may help to make global systems more resilient and sustainable. This chapter examines how agricultural systems modelling can support decision-making to identify and implement suitable ‘climate-smart’ production practices, thus helping to mitigate climate risk in agricultural systems and contributing to enhanced and more sustainable crop and livestock production.