Data Assimilation for Numerical Smoke Prediction

Skillful forecasts of weather phenomena in numerical models begin with the most accurate set of initial conditions achievable from observational data sets. The process of combining observations with numerical model predictions is called data assimilation . This chapter describes the types of observations available for data assimilation in models that predict the transport, fate, and impacts of smoke pollution. Observation properties needed for effective data assimilation are identified based on experiences with a variety of observation types in data assimilation experiments, compiled from the published literature. The second half of the chapter surveys the data assimilation methodologies that have been applied to smoke aerosols, and describes specific problems associated with the smoke observations that require innovative techniques in data assimilation. The chapter concludes by providing an outlook for future research and development in data assimilation for smoke prediction models. Data assimilation for prediction of smoke is an emerging area of development that promises to greatly improve forecast skill as new data sets and techniques are applied.