Early On-treatment Circulating Tumor DNA Measurements and Response to Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors in Advanced Urothelial Cancer

Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) can induce durable disease control in metastatic urothelial cancer (mUC), but only 20-25% of patients respond. Early identification of a nondurable response will improve management strategies.To investigate whether on-treatment circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) measurements can predict ICI responsiveness in mUC patients.This study consists of a discovery cohort of 40 mUC patients and a prospective multicenter validation cohort of 16 mUC patients. Plasma cell-free DNA was collected at baseline and after 3 and 6 wk on ICIs. The ctDNA levels were calculated from targeted sequencing.Outcome measurements were progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS), and nondurable response (PFS ≤6 mo). Relationships with ctDNA were assessed using Cox regression. Changes in ctDNA level at 3 and 6 wk were categorized by an increase or decrease relative to baseline.In the discovery cohort, ctDNA was detected in 37/40 (93%) of patients at baseline. A ctDNA increase was observed in 12/15 (80%) and ten of 12 (83%) patients with a nondurable response at 3 and 6 wk, respectively. Of patients with a durable response (PFS >6 mo), 94% showed a decrease. A ctDNA increase at 3 wk was associated with shorter PFS (hazard ratio [HR] 7.8, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.1-19.5) and OS (HR 8.0, 95% CI 3.0-21.0), independent of clinical prognostic variables. Similar results were observed at 6 wk. The 3-wk association with PFS was validated in a prospective cohort (HR 7.5, 95% CI 1.3-42.6). Limitations include the limited number of patients.Early changes in ctDNA levels are strongly linked to the duration of ICI benefit in mUC and may contribute to timely therapy modifications.Benefit from immunotherapy can be predicted after only 3 wk of treatment by investigating cancer DNA in blood. This could help in timely therapy changes for urothelial cancer patients with limited benefit from immunotherapy.