End-User Threat Perception: Building Confidence to Make Decisions Ahead of Severe Weather

Ahead of severe weather, National Weather Service (NWS) core partners are responsible for making decisions that ensure the safety of their jurisdiction. NWS defines core partners as government and non-government officials who make weather related decisions; this study uses the term "end-user" to refer to those individuals within emergency management, fire departments, public works, and school systems. Owing to the complex science of severe weather forecasting, many events turn out to be null events and end-users learn to be selective in which forecasts warrant extra preparations. While end-users state they would rather be over-prepared than under-prepared, end-users face varying consequences in the wake of null events that could lead them to be more hesitant in the future. Our team conducted background and event-based interviews with emergency managers, fire departments, public works, and school officials in various states across the United States east of the Rocky Mountains. Event-based interviews were separated into sets according to their Storm Prediction Center (SPC) risk level and coded thematically; this study specifically focuses on how end-users perceived the threat of severe weather in the hours ahead of its forecasted occurrence. Analyses concluded that (i) end-users in the same SPC risk level perceived threats differently, (ii) end-users in the SPC Enhanced risk had the most variation, and (iii) threat perceptions were driven by forecast information, the end-users' personal experiences, and environmental cues. As SPC risk level increased, end-users increasingly applied information from the three themes to adjust their situational awareness and build confidence before making potentially costly decisions. By understanding the impacts of null events and how end-users gauge threats, the NWS can better support end-users and use null events as an opportunity to build trust and partnership with their core partners.