The Lag Effect of Riverine Flow-Discharge and Sediment-Load Response to Antecedent Rainfall with Different Cumulative Durations in Red Hilly Area in China

Rainfall is an important factor that causes riverine flow and sediment transport, and extreme rainfall has a particularly significant effect on the fluctuations of riverine flow and sediment load. Based on the daily rainfall from 1990 to 2020, in the upper watershed of the Lianjiang River, which is one of the source tributaries of China's largest freshwater lake (Poyang Lake), the 95th percentile method and minimum event interval time were employed to identify extreme rainfall events. Mann-Kendall test was used to check for abrupt changes in annual rainfall, riverine flow discharge, and riverine sediment loads, and to identify abrupt-change years; thus, different periods were divided via the abrupt change years. Multiple linear regression was applied to explore the lag effect of riverine flow-discharge and sediment-load response to antecedent rainfall, with different cumulative durations for each period. The results of the study indicated that (1) the expansion of garden land in 1995 caused a significant and abrupt change in sediment load. (2) Extreme rainfall events had a greater impact on riverine flow and sediment load as compared to ordinary rainfall. These events were found to explain more variations in riverine flow and sediment load, which led to longer lag times for both riverine flow and sediment transport. (3) The expansion of garden land under extreme rainfall conditions resulted in longer lag times for riverine flow and sediment transport, and reduced the need for antecedent rainfall with a longer pre-event time. Therefore, the analysis of antecedent rainfall and the lag response of riverine flow discharge and sediment load can help in understanding the response mechanism of riverine flow discharge and sediment load for the current era of increasing extreme rainfall. This analysis is crucial for improving the accuracy of simulating riverine flow and sediment under extreme rainfall conditions. Ultimately, it can contribute to effective watershed management during extreme rainfall events.