Can agronomic options alleviate the risk of compound drought-heat events during the wheat flowering period in southeastern Australia?

The impacts of compound drought-heat (DH) events on crops are more devastating than a single extreme event of drought or heat. Previous studies mainly assessed the change of individual extreme climate events. However, studies quantifying the characteristics of DH events during crop growth periods are still lacking. To the best of our knowledge, there is no study that has quantified the potential of adjusting sowing time and changing cultivars to reduce the risk of DH events for wheat in Australia. We aimed to (1) develop a combined index to capture the DH events occurring during the wheat flowering period at six study sites in southeastern Australia's wheat belt; (2) quantify the changes in the frequency (DHF), duration (DHD), and intensity (DHI) of DH events under future climate; and (3) identify feasible agronomic options to reduce the risk of DH events. We used the APSIM model driven by climate projections from 27 GCMs for the period of 1981-2100 to simulate the wheat flowering time and daily plant available water (PAW) at 0-100 cm soil layer. The wheat sensitive period (WSP) was defined as the period from 2 weeks before flowering to 2 weeks after flowering time. A DH event occurs when the daily maximum temperature is higher than 28 celcius and daily PAW is less than 40% of plant available water capacity for three consecutive days or more. Then, we assessed the DHF, DHD, and DHI under projected climate change. Finally, we investigated the potential of changing sowing time and cultivars to alleviate DHF, DHD, and DHI under different climate scenarios. According to the average values across six sites, the DHF, DHD, and DHI during the WSP increased by 15%, 12%, and 0.9% in 2040 s, and 49%, 44%, and 5% in 2080 s, respectively, compared to 2000 s. Such increases in DH events were mainly due to enhanced heat events. Early sowing and planting better-performing wheat cultivars with early flowering had great potential to lower the risk of future DH events. They could reduce the DHF, DHD, and DHI by 15%- 100%, 18%- 100%, and 16%- 100%, respectively, compared to without adaptation options. However, the strategy may introduce an increased frost risk across six sites, especially in regions with climates that are less dry and hot, such as Mudgee and Wagga Wagga. We expect our modelling work can provide useful information for developing effective agronomic management practices to help Australian wheat growers better prepare for DH events under climate change. The newly proposed DH framework can be applied to other dryland wheat growing regions globally.