Positive Predictive Value of Cirrhosis and Chronic Pancreatitis Diagnoses in Individuals with Alcohol Use Disorder: A Single-Center Study

Background Although accuracy of diagnosis codes for cirrhosis and chronic pancreatitis (CP) has been evaluated in multiple studies, none have focused on patients with alcohol use disorders (AUD). We evaluated the positive predictive value (PPV) for a verified diagnosis of cirrhosis and CP in AUD patients treated at a tertiary care center. Methods We performed a detailed review of electronic health records for AUD patients assigned ICD-9 or 10 codes for alcoholic cirrhosis (ALC) ( n = 199), CP ( n = 200), or both ( n = 200). We calculated PPV for a verified diagnosis of cirrhosis and CP and performed multivariable regression analysis to assess the impact of relevant factors on PPV for a verified diagnosis. Results PPV of cirrhosis was 81.2% (95% CI 77.0 to 84.9%) which increased to 87.5% (95% CI 83.8 to 90.6%) if the definition was relaxed to include alcohol-related hepatitis. PPV of CP was 54.5% (95% CI 49.5 to 59.5%) which increased to 78% (95% CI 73.6 to 82.0%) when recurrent acute pancreatitis was included in the definition. In multivariable analyses, the odds of a verified diagnosis were significantly higher in individuals aged 65+ years for both cirrhosis (OR 12.23, 95% CI 2.19 to 68.42) and CP (OR 8.84, 95% CI 2.7 to 28.93) and in ever smokers for CP (OR 1.95, 95% CI 1.05 to 3.65). Conclusion PPV for diagnosis codes in AUD patients is high for a verified diagnosis of cirrhosis but only modest for CP. While administrative datasets can provide reliable information for cirrhosis, future studies should focus on ways to boost the diagnostic validity of administrative datasets for CP.