Seasonal anomalies on climate disrupt ecosystem dynamics of different grazing systems

Frequency and amplitude of ecosystem productivity oscillation can affect the availability and quality of food resources (pastures), can change global carbon balance and alter trophic interactions. To better understand how extreme climate events disrupt established patterns of seasonal ecosystem productivity dynamics, we reconstructed and decomposed long-term periodic oscillation of grasslands NDVI using Bayesian and Empirical Mode Decomposition approaches. We found that accumulated water deficit reduces the amplitude of oscillatory fluctuations of primary productivity on both wild and domestic grazing scenarios, although a water surplus in the ecosystem affects differently these grazing systems. The type of grazing pressure and plant community can be determinant on modulating long-term ecosystem responses to climate anomalies. The observed centennial trend of more frequent climate extremes highlights the need for new methodological tools to unravel hidden long-term patterns of ecosystem functioning and to guide management strategies of agro-ecosystems under novel climate conditions.