Potential and critical pathways of CO2 emissions reduction: A city-based study

China has put forward the "Dual Carbon" target, carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. It is necessary to study the current situation of carbon emissions, carbon reduction potential, and decarbonization paths of industrial cities in China. Taking Wuhan, a typical industrial city, as an object, anthropogenic carbon emissions and distribution in Wuhan in the last 20 years are analyzed. The extended STIRPAT and the gray relation models are adopted to construct a decomposition model for discerning the driving factors of carbon emissions in Wuhan. Besides, a scenario -driven carbon emission projection system with five development scenarios is established, where carbon sinks from the ecosystem and CCUS technology and the decoupling status of "CO2 emissions-GDP " are considered, to assess Wuhan's carbon emissions reduction potential and decarbonization pathways by 2060. The results show that Wuhan's carbon emissions mainly come from the industrial and transportation sectors and that the increase in the share of tertiary industry and the decrease in carbon intensity are the main factors curbing Wuhan's carbon emissions. To realize the "Dual Carbon " target, Wuhan's decarbonization development should start with the ISI (Industrial Structure improving) scenario and focus mainly on the development of tertiary industry between 2022 and 2035. Between 2035 and 2045, the decarbonization development transitions to the BID (Comprehensively improving) scenario, which requires simultaneous accelerating improvement of the city's economy and energy structure. Finally, carbon neutrality can be achieved between 2050 and 2060 through ecosystem carbon sinks and technology carbon sinks.