Can the UK meet the World Health Organization PM2.5 interim target of 10 μg m−3 by 2030?

•This study assessed the benefits of EU, UK and city level policies on PM2.5.•Over 99% of UK area was predicted to meet the WHO PM2.5 target of 10 μg m−3 by 2030.•PM2.5 at kerbside in major cities still risks exceeding 10 μg m−3 by 2030.•Interpreting future PM2.5 forecasts requires knowledge of model uncertainty.•These findings and recommendations could be applicable to other European cities.