Understanding passenger exit choices during airplane emergencies: Insights from hybrid choice modeling

In transport accident rescue operations, the primary focus is on saving lives. However, people's behavior and choices in such dangerous situations are unforeseeable. This paper employs a hybrid choice model to investigate how unobservable human heterogeneity impacts passengers' decisions in airplane emergency evacuations. Three primary latent factors - fear of flying, knowledge of air safety, and no perception of risk - were identified based on indicators from fifteen statements. Subsequently, the hybrid choice model was expanded to include a time perception variable and interaction effects. The findings revealed that compared to Chinese respondents, individuals from the USA exhibit lower fear of flying, more air safety knowledge, and a higher risk perception in flying. All else being equal, aviation professionals can accept longer distances to exits than other passengers, and individuals with higher fear of flying choose middle exits more frequently. In contrast, those with lower risk perception prefer exits at either end of the cabin. Interaction terms indicated that increased air safety knowledge and lower risk perception contribute to a greater acceptance of more distant exits. A lack of risk perception makes traveling alone a significant factor in choosing an exit other than the frontmost, and people tended to avoid following others in densely populated evacuation flows. Regarding time perception, participants perceived the frontmost exit as the quickest, followed by the backmost exit, while the middle exits were viewed as the slowest. This study provides valuable insights for exit choice behavior modeling and airplane evacuation enhancement.